The Verdict Card
Four parts of anatomy, forensics and torture, condensed into one deployable contract: what Sentinel is allowed to do, what we expect of it, what we'll watch, and the exact numbers at which we pull it from duty.
D.1The verdict
Sentinel goes into the forward campaign on USDJPY H1 only, at modest size, under the guardrails below. The architecture is sound (A), the config sits on plateaus (C), costs can't explain it away (C) — but its edge is single-pair and partly unexplained (C), and its river may be slowing (B). We deploy it the way you'd employ a brilliant specialist with an unexplained method: gladly, on their proven ground, with supervision.
D.2Identity card
Deployment USDJPY · H1 · demo · magic 7702
Signals defaults + wae_dead_zone_pip: 20 · pip_value: 0.01 (JPY — never forget)
Risk ATR×1.5 stop · 1:3 target · 3-bar cooldown · 1% risk sizing
Forbidden other pairs (transfer disproven in C.1) · H4 (failed both ways in Round 4) · size increases before the forward test earns them
D.3Baselines and wobble bands — what "on track" means
The forward test is graded against these, with Lesson 11's honesty about sample size:
| metric | expectation | source |
|---|---|---|
| profit factor (long run) | ≈ 1.16 | 5y full history, real costs |
| profit factor (recent regime) | ≈ 1.06 | Round-4 sealed exam (2025→) |
| win rate | ≈ 35% | 1,876 trades |
| trade pace | ≈ 250 / year | observed |
| wins after first 50 trades | 10–24 is all normal | ±2σ band, p=0.348 |
Monte Carlo, 4,000 alternate futures with the edge fully healthy: over 60 trades (a quarter), PF can sit as low as 0.55 by pure luck — a quarter proves nothing. Over 250 trades (a year), the 5th percentile is PF 0.83, the 1st percentile 0.72 — and a healthy Sentinel still posts a losing year 23.5% of the time.
This is why the kill criteria below sit under the luck floor. Anything above them is weather, not climate.
D.4The pain contract
Signed before the campaign, so live losses are met with recognition instead of fear (numbers from C.6, at 0.1 lots on $10k):
Streaks 11 straight losses = the median year · 15 = merely unlucky · only beyond 20 is statistically alarming
Drawdown ~2.6% typical · 4.5% at 1-in-10 · 6.6% at 1-in-100 — single digits throughout
Losing months expected regularly; a losing quarter proves nothing (see patience table)
The rule during any streak inside these bands: re-read this page, check the watch metrics, change nothing
D.5Watch metrics — the dashboard's standing orders
Spread average live spread at Sentinel's entry times. Break-even at 2.6 pips (C.5); alarm at sustained > 1.5
The river rolling 6-month net USDJPY drift. Sentinel is long-skewed drift-dependent (B); a flat or reversing river (2026's PF 0.78) is the leading indicator of edge decay — yellow when 6-month |drift| < 3%
Rolling PF over the last 250 trades, compared against the patience table — the climate gauge
Reason audit monthly: read 5 random Sentinel reason strings against the chart (Lesson 12 ritual) — catches software rot no metric sees
D.6Kill criteria — the numbers, agreed in advance
| trigger | threshold | action |
|---|---|---|
| rolling 250-trade PF | < 0.72 | BENCH — worse than 1-in-100 luck; the edge is gone or broken |
| rolling 250-trade PF | 0.72 – 0.83 | REVIEW — re-run the deep dive analyses before continuing |
| losing streak | > 20 | PAUSE — beyond the 99th percentile; inspect before re-arming |
| drawdown (at 1% sizing) | > 8% | PAUSE — beyond anything Monte Carlo produced |
| avg entry spread, 2 weeks | > 1.5 pips | REVIEW costs; > 2.5 = BENCH until conditions normalise |
| river gauge | 6-mo |drift| < 3% for 2 quarters | REVIEW — the habitat itself may be gone |
Benching is not deleting: a benched Sentinel keeps paper-trading (steering wheel disconnected) while we diagnose — exactly how the Proving Ground would want it.
D.7Open items ledger
Verify WAE formula vs the real MT5 indicator on a USDJPY chart (A.3.5 — El's eyeball task; urgency reduced by B.1 but fidelity still matters)
Code make the SMA slope window a parameter (hardcoded diff(3); it's the dominant vote) · derive pip_value from symbol automatically (the A.3.5 trap, fixed by config today)
Engine native trailing exit (HA reversal beyond NonLagDot) still unsimulated — low stakes per C.7, revisit if live behavior diverges
Revisit this whole deep dive after the first 250 forward trades — the verdict card is a living document
That closes the deep dive: anatomy understood, myths tested and half-broken, dials proven plateaued, pain rehearsed, and a contract for deployment. The watchman goes to work — with you, at the gate, holding this card.